Friday, 28 October 2016

California drought enters 6th year

California Drought To Enter 6th Year, Colorado River States Struggle to Avert Water Crisis, Southeast Drought Worsens

27 October, 2016

Around the world, global warming is starting to have a serious impact on rainfall in the subtropics and middle latitudes. The tropical atmospheric circulation known as the Hadley Cell is expanding toward the poles. This expansion is causing clouds and storms to move further north. And as a result, regions in the middle latitudes are starting to dry out.

A changing climate means less rain and lower water supplies in regions where many people live and much of the planet’s food is produced: the mid-latitudes of the Northern and Southern hemispheres, including the U.S. Southwest, southern Europe and parts of the Middle East, southern Africa, Australia and Chile.
Such a fundamental shift in global weather patterns due to human-caused climate change is expected to reduce the food and water security of numerous nations. The World Resources Institute recently warned that food and water crises were imminent as a result. And, apparently, these kinds of changes to the world’s weather are already generating profound shocks in parts of the U.S.

Colorado River and California Droughts Expected to Persist

For the Colorado River, this combined warming and movement of clouds northward has produced a 16-year-long drought. Hotter average seasons result in greater rates of evaporation. So even if rainfall averages remain, grounds, lands and rivers are drier. But the Hadley Cell’s expansion has also moved rain bearing weather systems north.
It’s a compounding drying influence that has pushed Lake Mead, the nation’s largest reservoir, to record low levels. And states dependent on the great river’s water supply for farming and industry are now involved in negotiations to avert a water crisis in 2018. Forecasts predict a 50 percent possibility that Lake Mead’s water levels will fall below its mandatory rationing line. Such an event would result in water cut-offs for Arizona and Nevada.

(Over recent years, the U.S. has experienced numerous severe and long-running droughts. These worsening drought conditions have impacted everything from Colorado River levels to wildfires, to the health of forests, to commerce on the Mississippi River, to the productivity of state agriculture. As human fossil fuel burning continues, atmospheric changes will force rainfall toward the poles which will tend to further worsen drought conditions in middle-latitude regions like the lower 48 states of the U.S. Image source: Drought Monitor.)

In an attempt to prevent crisis in the coming months, California and other Colorado River states are attempting to cut water consumption now. Such a planned regional belt-tightening would help to avert conflict over the Colorado River’s dwindling stores and smooth out any losses over time. But, sadly, climate conditions are only likely to continue to worsen — increasing the risk of mandatory rationing for 2019, 2020 and beyond.
In California, a five-year-long drought that is the worst in state history now threatens to enter its 6th year. Rains during 2016 did help to reduce the severity of drought conditions for some parts of the state. And during recent days, a series of Pacific storms has helped to deliver moisture to some northern and central regions. However, with record warmth settling in over the Arctic and with a La Nina developing in the Pacific, long range forecasts indicate a high risk that California will experience a warm, dry winter. Such predicted conditions would result in a persistence of the present drought with continued impacts to the state’s forests and agriculture.

Southeastern Drought Expected to Expand

(Drought conditions are expected to worsen across the US Southeast this fall and winter. Drought in the Colorado River region is expected to persist or worsen. Drought in California and in parts of the US Northeast is expected to persist. Image Source: Climate Prediction Center.)

Further east, a flash drought that has settled into the US south is expected to worsen over the coming months. Abnormal warmth in the range of 5-15 degrees (F) above average for the region during the past month has combined with dry weather to spur severe to extreme drought conditions over a six state area. Now, parts of Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi are under the gun — with drought zones expected to persist or expand through at least early February.
US Drought Conditions to Worsen as the Globe Wars

In total, more than 120 million people or 28 percent of the population of the lower 48 states is experiencing drought. And the systemic impacts of multi-year, persistent droughts are widespread and growing. This drying is consistent with the impacts associated with a warming climate. And, unfortunately, such worsening of droughts is likely to continue until atmospheric warming is halted and/or reversed.


Hat tip to Wili

Arctic Sea Ice Collapse - 10/27/2016

Arctic Sea Ice Collapse 24—26 October: Annual Average Extent

Our truly dramatic October Plunge continues with no end in sight, into record low territory for annual average extent (as well as for daily extent, volume and area):
27 October, 2016

Eyeballing the graph, the blue dotted line and confidence interval suggest we'll be below 9.8 million km² by the end of November, so dramatically lower than both 2012 in autumn and 2013 during spring. We've truly entered the dreaded uncharted waters, where — literally — anything can happen. Including annual and ever longer Blue Ocean events. We're into the great wide open. Plot shows annual average* extent, not daily extent.

Graph highlights a likely future of sustained lowest ever annual average sea ice extent.

To visually present the new all–time record low for annual extent, the above graph has been laterally expanded all the way back to January 1st. There you can clearly see the May 15th previous record on the pink 2013 graph:

Annual Average Extent (AAE): From the last update at about 9.9 million km² on 23rd October, we've lost about 10600 km² from the AAE in just 3 days, which was within the expected timespan of October 26h.

In detail, daily extent went from 6,498,006 km² on 23rd October to 6,738,505 km² on 26th October, compared to 7,682,510 and 7,967,525 the year before, giving a relative loss of 44,516 km². The average decline in AAE over these 3 days has been 3376 km²/day, which means we've been on average 1,232,000 km² lower than last year in daily extent.

The next 10,000 km² line is 9.88 and expected on October 29h.

JAXA Annual Average Extent for 2015 as a whole was 4th lowest at 10.11 million km², and since Mid–October we've been lowest ever at about 9.9 million km² and setting new all–time low records every day. For the first time in 4 years we may also end up lowest ever on December 31t.

We're now already into uncharted waters. Some very interesting times ahead, with the best chances yet for a Blue Ocean event during the next ten months.

The next major milestone of the Arctic sea ice collapse is 9 million km² AAE, and expected in 2017—2018.

Trying to assess the true state of Arctic sea ice at this very extreme point in time

We're in the last week of October, and yet the temps are high and the storms still raging due to record levels of open water. And though extent was up 58 k km² yesterday for the entire Arctic, CAB area was down 39 k km², and according to JAXA & Wipneus, all–Arctic sea ice volume was down by 318 km³ to 3885, the lowest sea ice volume since October 15th. Thickness is also down 5.8 cm to 0.8 meters, the lowest in all of 2016, and, as far as I can see, since December 2012. 

Since 2014 the loss of volume has been at least 3700 km³ for October 26th, which is a tremendous loss of ice, whether current volume is 3885 km³ (JAXA) or closer to 5813 (PIOMAS).

I should add that from October 26th in 2012, the loss of thickness over the following month was 30.5 cm, which would take us all the way down to less than half a meter in 2016, so really dramatically thin ice cover in a winter season regularly visited by fierce storms in the Arctic Ocean.

0.5 meter ice means a winter storm could rip it all apart, and waves & swells can still work on the great Disintegration Project all through autumn & winter. Export through Fram, Nares Strait & the Canadian Arctic Archipelago can and will likely also carry on through winter.

All in all, this looks really catastrophic for ice. On the upside, winter will not be a bore for faithful watchers of Arctic sea ice.

*) Don't get it? Just about once every month there is a new person actively voicing their concern that this is all wrong. I've totally messed up and I don't even know ice melts in summer and ocean freezes over in autumn and winter. I'm not a teacher, so I can only explain the concept of an annual average scientifically. I don't know what motivates the person in question to actually go and read the mathematical explanation. I usually don't know that person at all. I've been publishing annual average graphs since 2014, and I can assure you they are not wrong. Mostly, the monthly concerned person didn't get the 'annual average' part. 

Or they thought it wasn't essential to the understanding of the graph. It is.

PS: For the 7–year outlook, have a look at this post.

in this season of seasons i see
collapse itself collapsing and the
future of future spinning like moths

in the lamp on a floor of dead moths

The Calais "Jungle" is burnt down

As fires burn through Calais ‘Jungle’, UNICEF urges protection of children remaining in the camp

Firefighters battle a fire in the Calais refugee camp known as 'the Jungle', 26 October 2016. Photo: Francois Nascimbeni / AFP / Getty Images

Desdemona Despair,
27 October, 2016

27 October 2016 (UN) – “Deeply troubled” that last night, while fires burned in parts of the Calais refugee and migrant camp that has become known as “the Jungle” burned, many children were forced to sleep out in the cold, the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) today underscored that authorities on the ground must guarantee their protection.
Reports today from volunteers in Calais that some children have been escorted away by police for not having a wristband are shocking,” said a joint statement from the French and United Kingdom National Committees for UNICEF.
With the situation for some children in Calais more dangerous than ever, despite the promises of the French and UK governments to keep children safe throughout demolition of the camp, UNICEF urged stepped up action to ensure their protection.
Despite queuing for hours yesterday, dozens of children were reportedly unable to register and get their official wristbands from the authorities before the registration closed. This kind of situation is exactly what exposes children to traffickers and smugglers, and puts them in dangerous situations without food, shelter and any support,” UNICEF warned.
In all this, the agency urged the authorities to guarantee the protection and best interests of every child. “After so much progress has been made to bring them to safety, it would be unacceptable for children to now slip through the cracks.”

A migrant walks past a shack set ablaze in the Calais refugee camp known as 'the Jungle', on Tuesday night, 26 October 2016. Photo: Philippe Huguen / AFP / Gerry Images
PARIS/LONDON, 27 October 2016 - “UNICEF is deeply troubled that last night, with the camp on fire, many children were forced to sleep out in exposed and cold conditions. And reports today from volunteers in Calais that some children have been escorted away by police for not having a wristband are shocking.
The UK and French governments promised to keep children safe throughout the demolition. Yet right now, the situation for some children in Calais is more dangerous than ever.
Despite queuing for hours yesterday, dozens of children were reportedly unable to register and get their official wristbands from the authorities before the registration closed. This kind of situation is exactly what exposes children to traffickers and smugglers, and puts them in dangerous situations without food, shelter and any support.
Today, and moving forwards, the authorities must guarantee the protection and best interests of every child. After so much progress has been made to bring them to safety, it would be unacceptable for children to now slip through the cracks.”

Firefighters struggle to control the dozens of fires tearing through the refugee camp in Calais known as 'the Jungle', 26 October 2016. Photo: Saskya Vandoorne / CNN
By Bryony Jones and Angela Dewan
26 October 2016

Calais, France (CNN) – Migrants torched dozens of makeshift shelters in "The Jungle" refugee camp in France on Wednesday, sending raging fires through the heart of the settlement that firefighters were struggling to extinguish.
A single fire was lit in the early hours of the morning, but by 11 a.m. local time, dozens of tents and shacks were ablaze -- a suffocating blanket of black smoke over the camp.
The fires followed several nights of clashes this week between police and migrants who refused to leave the camp, as French authorities began busing residents out by the thousands and demolition teams started tearing the camp down.
"We had anticipated this by pre-positioning firefighters as part of this operation and also passed the message to migrants and community representatives not to set fire to the shelters," a Calais prefecture spokesperson said.
"The cleaning company will today continue the removal of empty shelters to limit the risk of further fires."
The Jungle has become a wretched symbol of Europe's migrant crisis, and France has tried to shut it down several times, only to be denied by the courts. Migrants have long refused to leave the camp, which sits some 30 miles across the Eurotunnel to the UK, one of the more desirable countries for refugees in the region. [more]

Paul Craig Roberts: We all might be dead soon

Paul Craig Roberts: 'Putin's Nukes Could Wipe Out Entire East Coast' (PODCAST)
If the US thinks it can continually transgress against Russia until Moscow gives in, it is gravely mistaken

27 October, 2016

Suffice to say, though children are at play, this is not a game.
Those who have been toying with outright war against Russia, and an escalation of the conflict in Syria, are putting the lives of all Americans at risk.
Of course, the threat of nuclear annihilation has been with us since the earliest days of the Cold War, but Russia has now positioned itself with the largest and most destructive nuclear arsenal of any country in the world.
Economist and political critic Dr. Paul Craig Roberts explains how diplomatic relations have broken between Russia and the United States, after the U.S. knowingly attacked pro-Assad Syria forces… that, of course, was the cherry on top of a host of insults, deliberate antagonism and a strategy that could only result in further chaos and war.
The end of negotiations is unfortunately, given that fighting it out could mean thermonuclear war that would make Hiroshima and Nagasaki look trivial in comparison.

After a period of some patience, Russia is now warning that the United States is dangerously close to turning a proxy war into a direct world war – and they are deadly serious about defending the motherland and their sworn allies – namely Assad.
Any further attack could result in immediate destruction.
Putin is a formidable opponent and Russia a powerful enemy. At present time, they have the capability of wiping the entire East Coast of the United States off the map – where more than 100 million people live. Will the ranking misleaders in Washington continue to gamble with all of our lives?
via the Express:
VLADIMIR Putin’s nuclear stockpile could completely destroy the east coast of the US in one clean swipe should the Russian leader launch an attack on the West, an expert has warned.
A staggering 112.6million people could be at risk of extermination from the deadly missiles.
Russia has the largest haul of nuclear weapons of any country in the world and reportedly has the most powerful bomb named the SS-18 – menacingly nicknamed the Satan.
Experts estimate Russia has 55 of the deadly weapons, but only five would be needed to destroy the East Coast of the US.
Five or six of these ‘Satans’ as they are known by the US military, and the East Coast of the United States disappears.”
Dr Roberts said: “The atomic bombs that Washington dropped on these helpless civilian centres while the Japanese government was trying to surrender, were mere popguns compared to today’s thermo-nuclear weapons.

What’s more, the Russian have hinted strongly at the possibility that they would be able to disable electronics, communications and defense shields in the U.S. via electromagnetic warfare – perhaps an EMP.
Worst of all, the American misleaders haven’t even got a good reason for putting the population at such a risk – strategy in the middle east is muddied at best, and prodding for war with Russia doesn’t carry a clear narrative either.
The world could change, and American power could end in a few decisive minutes.
Hopefully it would never come to that, but we shouldn’t live in a false world where we pretend these situations can’t harm us.

British PM Calls On EU Leaders To Unite Against Russia
The British Prime Minister has called on European leaders to unite against Russia and stop what she referred to as Russian “atrocities” in Syria.

27 October, 2016

We must show a robust and united European stance in the face of Russian aggression,” Theresa May told reporters on Thursday in a call which is expected to further strain ties between Moscow and London.

Press TV reports:

May, whose country is in the process of leaving the European Union (EU) following a historic referendum in June, said Thursday that the EU needs to take a tougher stance against the government of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

It is vital that we work together to continue to put pressure on Russia to stop these appalling atrocities, these sickening atrocities, in Syria,” the premier said Thursday, before attending her first EU summit.

She also called for a “robust and united European stance in the face of Russian aggression.”

The UK and Russia have strong disagreements over a number of issues, such as the Syrian conflict and Western sanctions against Russia.

On Syria, where foreign-backed militants have been wreaking havoc for years, the UK and other Western countries like the US have been demanding an immediate end to Russia’s military campaign, which has helped the Syrian government defeat the Takfiri terrorists in many regions.

Britain has also been one of the most fervent supporters of Western sanctions against Russia over its alleged involvement in the Ukraine conflict.

The two countries’ military forces have been involved in a series of aerial and naval confrontations, with Britain sending its jets and warships on several occasions to intercept Russian bombers and naval fleets.

The latest of those encounters occurred on Thursday, when the Russian aircraft career Admiral Kuznetsov and its task force were “shadowed” by two British warships on a course to sail through the North Sea and English Channel, on their way to Syria.

This is while the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), of which the UK is a member, had acknowledged earlier in the day that Russia had the right to operate in international waters.

According to the Kremlin, Putin had told May in early September that Russia wants to restore ties between the two countries “in all spheres, including the most sensitive ones.”

Get Ready For Civil Unrest after the US election

Get Ready For Civil Unrest: Survey Finds That Most Americans Are Concerned About Election Violence

 By Michael Snyder, on October 26th, 2016

Economic Collapse Blog,
October, 2016

Could we see violence no matter who wins on November 8th?  Let’s hope that it doesn’t happen, but as you will see below, anti-Trump violence is already sweeping the nation.  If Trump were to actually win the election, that would likely send the radical left into a violent post-election temper tantrum unlike anything that we have ever seen before.  Alternatively, there is a tremendous amount of concern on the right that this election could be stolen by Hillary Clinton.  And as I showed yesterday, it appears that voting machines in Texas are already switching votes from Donald Trump to Hillary Clinton.  If Hillary Clinton wins this election under suspicious circumstances, that also may be enough to set off widespread civil unrest all across the country.

At this moment there is less than two weeks to go until November 8th, and a brand new survey has found that a majority of Americans are concerned about the possibility of violence” on election day…
A 51% majority of likely voters express at least some concern about the possibility of violence on Election Day; one in five are “very concerned.” Three of four say they have confidence that the United States will have the peaceful transfer of power that has marked American democracy for more than 200 years, but just 40% say they are “very confident” about that.
More than four in 10 of Trump supporters say they won’t recognize the legitimacy of Clinton as president, if she prevails, because they say she wouldn’t have won fair and square.
But many on the left are not waiting until after the election to commit acts of violence.  On Wednesday, Donald Trump’s star on the Walk of Fame was smashed into piecesby a man with a sledgehammer and a pick-ax…
Donald Trump took a lot of hits today, and not just in the Presidential race. With less than two weeks to go before America decides if the ex-Apprentice host will pull off a surprise victory over Hillary Clinton, Trump’s star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame was destroyed early Wednesday morning by a man dressed as a city construction worker and wielding a sledgehammer and pick-ax in what looks to be a Tinseltown first.
And there were two other instances earlier this year when Donald Trump’s star was also vandalized.  One came in January, and the other happened in June
This is of course not the first time the GOP candidate’s star has been attacked or defaced since Trump announced his White House bid in summer 2015. The most extreme measure was a reverse swastika being sprayed on the star at 6801 Hollywood Blvd in late January. In June this summer, a mute sign was painted on Trump’s star in a seemingly protest against the antagonistic language and policies some have accused Trump of promoting and reveling in during the campaign. In both cases, Trump’s star was quickly cleaned and back as new within a day.
We have seen anti-Trump violence on the east coast as well.  Earlier this month, someone decided to firebomb the Republican Party headquarters in Orange County, North Carolina.  On the building next to the headquarters, someone spray-painted “Nazi Republicans get out of town or else” along with a swastika.
There have also been other disturbing incidents of anti-Trump violence all over the nation in recent days.  A recent  Lifezette article put together quite a long list, and the following is just a short excerpt from that piece…
On Oct. 15 in Bangor, Maine, vandals spray-painted about 20 parked cars outside a Trump rally. Trump supporter Paul Foster, whose van was hit with white paint, told reporters, “Why can’t they do a peaceful protest instead of painting cars, all of this, to make their statement?”
Around Oct. 3, a couple of Trump supporters were assaulted in Zeitgeist, a San Francisco bar, after they were allegedly refused service for expressing support for Trump, GotNews reports. “The two Trump supporters were attacked, punched, and chased into the street by ‘some thugs’ that a barmaid called out from the back.” Lilian Kim of ABC 7 Bay Area tweeted a photo of the men, in which one was wearing a Trump T-shirt and the other was wearing a “Blue Lives Matter” shirt.
On Sept. 28 in El Cajon, California, an angry mob at a Black Lives Matter protest beat 21-year-old Trump supporter Feras Jabro for wearing a “Make America Great Again” baseball cap. The assault was broadcast live using the smartphone app Periscope.
There is a move to get Trump supporters to wear red on election day, but in many parts of America that might just turn his supporters into easy targets.  Let’s certainly hope that we don’t see the kind of violent confrontations at voting locations that many experts are anticipating.

Of course there are also many on the right that are fighting mad, and a Hillary Clinton victory under suspicious circumstances may be enough to push them over the edge.

For example, this week former Congressman Joe Walsh said that he is grabbing my musket” if Donald Trump loses the election…
Former Rep. Joe Walsh appeared to call for armed revolution Wednesday if Donald Trump is not elected president.
Walsh, a former tea party congressman from Illinois who is now a conservative talk radio host, tweeted, “On November 8th, I’m voting for Trump. On November 9th, if Trump loses, I’m grabbing my musket. You in?”
And without a doubt, many ordinary Americans are stocking up on guns and ammunition just in case Hillary Clinton is victorious.  The following comes from USA Today
Since the polls are starting to shift quite a bit towards Hillary Clinton, I’ve been buying a lot more ammunition,” says Rick Darling, 69, an engineer from Harrison Township, in Michigan’s Detroit suburbs. In a follow-up phone interview after being surveyed, the Trump supporter said he fears progressives will want to “declare martial law and take our guns away” after the election.
Today America is more divided than I have ever seen it before, and the mainstream media is constantly fueling the hatred and the anger that various groups feel toward one another.

Ironically, Donald Trump has been working very hard to bring America together.  In fact, he is solidly on track to win a higher percentage of the black vote than any Republican presidential candidate since 1960.

If Hillary Clinton and the Democrats win on November 8th, things will not go well for Hillary Clinton’s political enemies.  The Clintons used the power of the White House to go after their enemies the first time around, and Hillary is even more angry and more bitter now than she was back then.

And the radical left is very clear about who their enemies are.  This is something that I discussed on national television earlier this month

As I write this, it is difficult for me to even imagine how horrible a Hillary Clinton presidency would be.

But at this point that appears to be the most likely outcome.

Out of all the candidates that we could have chosen, the American people are about to put the most evil one by far into the White House.

Perhaps Donald Trump can still pull off a miracle and we can avoid that fate, but time is rapidly slipping away and November 8th will be here before we know it.